Thursday 26 March 2026 17:04
| Updated:
Thursday 26 March 2026 17:05
Boosting trade is the single best way to improve Britain’s long-term fortunes even as its economy is hit by a series of supply chain cracks and geopolitical shocks, the Bank of England’s former chief economist said.
In his first speech as president of the British Chambers of Commerce, Andy Haldane told delegates that although people were “queuing up” to declare the death of globalization, “there is no policy tool on the planet” that could improve the UK economy more than embracing international trade.
“Those who write obituaries about globalization are being very premature,” he said. “There may be a rupture in the global world order, but this affects the weak point, not the aorta: it is painful, but if we get the policies right, it will not be fatal.”
Successive macroeconomic shocks and the upheaval of the global trading system carried out by Donald Trump have given rise to a wave of speculation that the era of globalization that has dominated international affairs for the last 50 years will decline.
The impact of the coronavirus pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused many countries to reevaluate their dependence on international supply chains, and many countries are implementing measures to prioritize goods and services in their own markets. The spate of protectionism intensified after the US President last year announced a wave of tariffs against trading partners around the world, which have since been deemed illegal by the US Supreme Court.
Earlier this month, the European Commission put forward plans to introduce a ‘Buy EU’ directive, to boost the region’s manufacturing power. As part of a pending trade deal with the US, China is also trying to protect its ailing steel industry from a glut of cheap imports by raising tariffs by up to 50 percent. Britain has also imposed a 50 percent tariff on steel imports and reduced quotas for trade duty rebates.
Iran war amplifies trade concerns
Concerns about the economy being impacted by international events are magnified with the start of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran, with companies and households now facing the impact of higher energy prices and higher interest rates. The latest shock has given rise to calls for Britain to become more economically independent, with pressure increasing on the government to lift a ban on new oil drilling in the North Sea.
Haldane, who served on the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee for seven years before stepping down in 2021, said that increasing trading volumes would act as a “rocket boost” to living standards and the cost of living.
“There is no policy tool on the planet that could produce such a large harvest,” he said.
The former price setter’s remarks echoed similar comments made by the industry body’s director general, who urged ministers to push for a better trading environment in the face of the conflict in Iran.
Shevaun Haviland said “there is actually hope in trade” despite the “challenging” international picture.
He added: “My message to our government in these tumultuous times is: stay calm. Keep talking to businesses and prepare to act.
“With rising energy bills and no limits for business, ministers must consider every option if we want the UK to remain competitive, remain resilient and remain open to business, government and business must weather this storm together.”
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